ELUSIVE FORCES DRIVE SHARE-DEALING BOOM

If there is a symbol of China's stock market boom, it is the novice retail investors who have rapidly developed a passion for equities. Brokerage offices that were almost empty a year ago are now packed with young and old would-be speculators. In recent weeks, the Chinese have been opening about 300,000 new stock trading accounts every day, taking the total number of accounts to more than 80m.

But who is really driving the Chinese market, which has quadrupled in value in two years? The new retail investors have captured all the headlines, yet some market-watchers believe they are just one part of a much broader surge in stock-buying, which contains the seeds of potentially big problems for the government.

According to a provocative new analysis from Fraser Howie, an investment banker and author of a book on China's stock markets, the role of retail investors has been exaggerated. Instead, Mr Howie says, around $225bn of shares – or nearly half the float – are owned by less conventional fund managers.

He believes a significant chunk of shares has been bought over the last year by different parts of the government, such as state-owned companies, local government units, the police and the army. Such investments are impossible to prove but he argues the same thing happened during the last bull market, which ended in 2001, and accountability of government spending at local level remains weak.

Some of his impressions are supported by other investors. “It was the big, cash-rich state-owned enterprises, particularly the tobacco companies, that were the main drivers of the market until the end of last year,” says Chris Ruffle, co-chairman of MC China, a subsidiary of Martin Currie Investment Management and a large investor in China. “They have so much money they don't know what to do with it, so they put it in the stock market.”

Another significant slice of new money has come into the market from the hundreds of new private investment funds that have sprung up over the last two years, often run by individuals who invest the money of friends and family. In China they are often referred to as hedge funds because they are not regulated, and they usually call themselves “investment consultants”. They are gradually becoming a powerful force in the market. Mr Howie reckons these funds could have $50bn under management, while other estimates go as high as $75bn.

Xiao Jinbin, 32, has a degree in air-conditioning and heating, but in 2005 he left the engineering industry to invest in stocks on behalf of former classmates and relatives. Last year he founded 91 Fund (which sounds in Chinese like “I just want a fund”) and has no concerns about potential market bubbles. “I am confident about the future of China,” he says. “China's splendid civilisation was left behind by the west for various reasons, but we believe our generation will rebuild its glory.”

Mr Howie acknowledges that the retail investment boom is taking place, but he says the numbers for new account openings give an exaggerated impression of the extent of retail investment. He points out that the average number of retail investors subscribing to initial public offerings is only 450,000.

Every quarter, listed Chinese companies have to publish the number of shareholders they have and the most recent total was around 55m. Yet as most investors own stocks in several companies, he says, the actual number of people owning shares is much smaller. He estimates there are only 10m to 20m small investors trading their own accounts, who own around one-fifth of the shares traded on mainland exchanges and he says they are not the decisive factor.

“The market is not being driven by accounts held by old ladies or farmers from Guangxi,” he says.

While the real ownership of the stock market is impossible to pin down, Mr Howie's analysis poses important questions about what might happen if there is a sharp crash in share prices. The losers would not just be the small, retail investors who piled into the market when it was already relatively expensive, but could also include government organs and state-owned companies.

With speculation mounting that the government will take action to try to burst a perceived bubble in the market, such investments would add to the complicated vested interests that the authorities already face.

“I would hate to be the market regulator at the moment,” says Mr Howie

谁在推动中国股市？

如果要挑选中国股市火爆的标志，那就得是对股票快速产生热情的新散户了。一年前，证券营业部大厅还是空荡荡的，如今则挤满了老老少少的准投机者。最近几周，中国每天新开立的股票投资账户约有30万个，账户总数量超过8000万个。

但究竟是谁推动了中国股市在两年内市值翻两番？新入市的散户投资者占据了各大报纸的头条位置，但一些市场观察人士认为，新散户只是更大范围股票购买热潮的一部分，而这一热潮为政府播下了可能爆发大问题的种子。

投资银行家弗雷泽•豪伊(Fraser Howie)一项颇具煽动性的分析研究表明，散户投资者的作用被夸大了。相反，豪伊表示，大约有2250亿美元的股票（相当于流通市值的一半），都掌握在不甚保守的基金管理机构手中。豪伊曾写过一本有关中国股市的书。

他相信，过去一年中，有相当一部分股票被政府的不同部门买走，比如国有企业、地方政府机构、警方和军队等。要想证明这些投资是不可能的，但他指出，同样的事情在2001年结束的上一波牛市里曾经发生过，而且地方政府的支出责任制度现在仍然薄弱。

他的一些主张得到了其他投资者的支持。马丁可利投资管理有限公司(Martin Currie Investment)中国业务联席主席克里斯•拉夫尔(Chris Ruffle)说：“在去年底之前，推动市场的主要力量是那些现金充沛的大型国有企业，尤其是烟草公司。他们拥有太多的资金，不知道该如何处理，因此就将它们投入了股市。”马丁可利也是中国市场上一个大型投资机构。

进入市场的新资金中，另一大块就是过去两年如雨后春笋般出现的私募基金。这些基金通常由个人运营，替亲朋好友投资。在中国，人们通常将它们视为对冲基金，因为它们不受监管，通常自称“投资咨询公司”。这些基金正逐步成为市场上一个强大的力量。豪伊推断，这些基金可能管理着500亿美元的资金，而其他人估计的数字高达750亿美元。

32岁的肖进斌（音译）毕业于空调及供暖专业，但他在2005年离开了工程行业，转而代以前的同学和亲戚投资股票。去年他建立了“91基金”（91 Fund，中文发音像“就要基金”），而且并不担心潜在的市场泡沫。“我对中国的未来非常有信心，”他表示。“出于种种原因，中国光辉灿烂的文明被西方文明抛在了后面，但我们相信，我们这代人将再造辉煌。”

豪伊承认，中国正在出现散户投资热潮，但他表示，新开户数给人留下了散户投资规模庞大的假象。他指出，每当有公司进行首次公开发行(IPO)时，申购新股的散户投资者数量平均仅为45万。

每个季度，中国的上市企业必须公布现有股东数量，而最近发布的总数约为5500万。不过他表示，由于多数投资者同时拥有数家企业的股票，因此，持股者的实际数量要少得多。他估计，目前用自己账户进行交易的散户投资者仅为1000万至2000万，他们的持股数量约占内地交易所上市股票总量的五分之一。他表示，这些散户投资者不是市场的决定因素。
他表示：“推动市场的力量，并不是老太太或广西农民开立的账户。”

尽管不太可能彻底弄清中国股市的实际持股归属，但豪伊的分析提出了一个重要的问题，即如果股价暴跌，可能会发生什么情况。亏损者将不仅包括那些在股价已经相对较高时一窝蜂地涌入股市的小散户们，也将包括政府机构和国有企业。

鉴于人们日益猜测政府将采取行动，以击破显而易见的市场泡沫，这些投资将使得业已面临复杂既得利益的政府陷入更加为难的境地。

豪伊表示：“届时，我可不想成为市场监管者。”