US TRADE WITH CHINA

“ Global imbalances” have been seen as a threat for so long that it's tempting to conclude that the world economy is, in fact, in harmony. That said, many things still look out of whack. From Spanish property to emerging market debt, asset prices and valuations are stretched. Consumer indebtedness, particularly in Anglo-Saxon countries, is at record levels. Other indicators, such as currency market volatility and risk premiums are well away from long-term trends. But the most commonly cited “imbalance” is the US trade deficit.
Many are blaming China and point to its ballooning surplus with the US, which now exceeds $200bn. In Washington, Congress in particular is gunning for sanctions. A simplified solution is for China to revalue its currency and, if vice-premier Wu Yi received a dollar each time this was requested at this week's bilateral talks, she could almost have returned home and solved the trade deficit single handedly.
If this is the biggest problem facing global stability, then worryingly, there appears to be no managed solution in sight. China is well aware of the negative effect that a strong renminbi would have on its export-fuelled growth and has given no ground. And it wouldn't just be Chinese companies that suffer – little is said about the hit to margins for foreign companies with significant manufacturing exposure to China. A sharp appreciation may also cause a shock to the rest of Asia, which, although receiving a step gain in competitiveness, has been grateful for cheap Chinese imports.

That means the deficit will probably have to unwind at the US end. Indeed, the US dollar has already fallen against most other currencies, particularly the euro. The most damaging “solution” would be if imports fall as a result of a contraction in consumption, possibly due to recession. And with Japan still weak, it is debatable whether Europe could support global growth alone. Best to hope these imbalances do not topple over any time soon.

美中贸易逆差无解

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全球失衡”被视为一种威胁的时间已经太久，因此，得出全球经济事实上处于和谐状态的结论，是件颇为诱人的事情。话虽如此，很多事情仍然看上去有些失衡。从西班牙房产到新兴市场债券，资产价格和估值都有些过高；消费者的债务负担——特别是英语国家——正处于创纪录的水平。其它指标——比如汇率市场波动和风险溢价等——都已明显偏离长期趋势。但人们最经常提及的“失衡”现象，却是美国的贸易逆差。
很多人都在指责中国，并将问题归咎于它不断扩大的对美贸易顺差（目前已超过2000亿美元)。在华盛顿，美国国会正寻找制裁目标。一个简单的解决方案就是中国让人民币升值。在上周的中美双边会谈中，如果美方每提一次请求都给中国副总理吴仪一美元，那么在她回国之际，也许就能够解决逆差问题了。
如果说这是全球稳定所面临的最大问题，那么令人担心的是，目前来看这个问题并无可行的解决方案。中国非常清楚强势人民币对其出口驱动型经济增长的负面影响，因此迄今为止没有做出让步。同时，受损的将不仅仅是中国企业——人们很少提及，对于在华拥有大量制造业务的外国公司而言，它们的利润率也将受损。人民币急剧升值还可能给亚洲其它地区带来冲击，后者虽然在竞争力方面正逐步提高，但也一直在从廉价的中国产品中受益。

上述情况意味着，贸易逆差的问题可能将不得不从美国方面加以解决。事实上，美元兑其它大部分国家货币汇率都已经下跌，特别是兑欧元汇率。如果美国的进口因消费收缩而回落，而消费收缩源自于经济衰退，那将是一个最具破坏性的“解决方案”。鉴于日本经济依然疲软，欧洲能否独自支撑起全球经济的增长令人怀疑。我们最好还是希望这些失衡不要很快失控。